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Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.