‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.