Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
