Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
