Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
