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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.